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TD Securities said the dollar weakened after the July FOMC rate hold and Chair Warsh's lack of hawkish guidance, with the broad index down about 0.3% after the statement. The bank expects the selloff to be limited unless US data surprise to the downside.
Limited dollar weakness means only modest support for USD-priced feed commodities, so the price effect is likely small unless US data weaken.
octabroker.comJul 30, 2026After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dollar weakness after the FOMC hold and lack of hawkish guidance contributed to the move, though TD expected the selloff to be limited.
