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J.P. Morgan analysts estimated that global oil supply exceeded consumption by 1.1 million barrels per day in September and 1.4 million barrels per day in October.
They cited recovering Middle Eastern flows, rising production elsewhere and weak demand, alongside inventory increases in China, South Korea and OECD Europe.
A sizable surplus and rising inventories indicate that supply is outpacing demand, creating bearish pressure on crude prices. Further stock builds would reinforce that pressure unless demand strengthens or supply is disrupted again.
rigzone.comAndreas ExarheasNov 6, 2026After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
