
The IEA estimates that the Iran war removed about 60 billion cubic metres of LNG supply over the eight months to October and projects global LNG production will fall 3% this year, the steepest annual decline on record. QatarEnergy extended force majeure on LNG exports, while Asian and European buyers competed for fewer cargoes; JKM was reported at $31.57/MMBtu on November 6.
The loss of LNG supply tightens the global market and intensifies competition among importers, putting upward pressure on gas prices in Asia and Europe.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.