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Grain and oilseed prices fell sharply during the week, with major grains returning to lows not seen for several months. Hopes for de-escalation after Russia-Ukraine talks were announced for November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi helped push wheat lower, as traders anticipated improved Black Sea export flows; Euronext December 2026 wheat fell below €225 per tonne.
Expectations of restored Black Sea exports reduce the geopolitical risk premium and increase anticipated grain availability, weighing on prices. The price effect depends on whether export flows actually improve.
lafranceagricole.frArgus Media (1Nov 6, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
