
The rupiah fell 0.04% to Rp18,089 per US dollar on Friday. An analyst linked the decline to concern that tanker attacks in the Middle East could disrupt oil supplies; maritime authorities had recorded at least five vessel incidents since Sunday, November 1.
Fears of disrupted oil flows can support crude prices, increasing costs for fuel and transport, while higher energy-import costs may add pressure to the rupiah. A weaker rupiah can also raise the local-currency cost of dollar-priced feed imports.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.