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Dry weather in SD Guthrie’s Indonesian estates lasted around four months and could reduce fresh fruit bunch yields and output with a six- to 18-month lag, extending into early FY28. The company expects lower Indonesian output but growth in Malaysia and Papua New Guinea; CIMB Securities said higher crude palm oil prices could cushion the production weakness, though high Malaysian inventories weigh on near-term prices.
Drought-related yield losses could tighten palm oil supply over the coming months and support prices, while high inventories provide a near-term bearish counterweight. Higher wages and fertilizer costs may also raise production costs.
nst.com.myAsila JalilNov 6, 2026After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
