China's soybean meal inventories rose for three consecutive weeks to 1.389 million tonnes by October 30, up 27.4% from after the National Day holiday and the highest since August. Soybean crushing rates recovered to 60%-67%, while sluggish feed demand and cautious buying failed to absorb production; high soybean arrivals are expected to sustain heavy crushing through November.
The report expects meal stocks to remain above 1.2 million tonnes through November, with a potential turn lower in the second half of December if holiday buying grows and crushers reduce operating rates.
High crush volumes and weak feed demand are building meal inventories, increasing near-term availability and capping soybean meal prices. A later demand pulse or lower crushing could ease the pressure, but the article says those triggers are not yet in place.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.