Chicago corn futures fell to their lowest level since early July amid expectations for greater U.S. supplies and reduced geopolitical risk in the Black Sea. StoneX raised its U.S. corn production estimate to 16.203 billion bushels from 16.115 billion and also increased its soybean crop outlook; prospects for peace talks helped ease concerns about Black Sea grain shipping disruptions.
Higher U.S. crop estimates imply more corn and soybean availability, putting downward pressure on prices. Reduced Black Sea risk can also lessen the supply-risk premium in grain markets.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.