
Durum wheat sowing in Puglia is expected to begin in mid-November, concentrated on the highest-yielding land as farmers contend with high diesel and fertilizer costs and stagnant prices. The area planted may fall by nearly 5% from the 240,000 hectares recorded in 2025/26, with marginal land abandoned or shifted to crops such as barley.
A smaller durum area could tighten Italian wheat supplies and support prices, while land switched to barley could add to barley supply and weigh on its prices.
After 57 past bullish macro events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.7%), and -0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.