Global Oil Surplus Widens to 1.4M Bpd as Gulf Exports Recover

After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.

• Aug 7, 2019Oil dives 4.7% on fears of a global slowdown+6.4%
• Jan 30, 2018Rising US oil exports, market disruption, Brent-WTI spread | Wood Mackenzie-2.3%
• Aug 23, 2018Oil slips as trade spat escalates; but crude stock decline supports U.S. crude+2.6%
• May 27, 2019Oil under pressure from U.S.-China trade war, but OPEC cuts provide support, ETAuto-8.5%
• Aug 2, 2019Column: Oil plunges as U.S. tariff threat boosts probability of recession-2.2%

After 56 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.

• Aug 7, 2019Oil dives 4.7% on fears of a global slowdown+3.1%
• Aug 23, 2018Oil slips as trade spat escalates; but crude stock decline supports U.S. crude+3.7%
• Aug 2, 2019Column: Oil plunges as U.S. tariff threat boosts probability of recession-7.9%
• Apr 6, 2025Oil prices slide 2% to near 4-year low as US trade conflict fuels recession fears | Reuters-1.7%
• Jun 3, 2019Oil falls as trade fears offset expectations for prolonged supply cuts-2.9%