Brazil's central bank held the benchmark rate at 13.75% and raised its inflation forecast, halting a run of cuts. Goldman Sachs now sees no cuts until at least the second quarter of 2028, while Lula's election win has pushed up long-term borrowing costs and weakened the real.
Prolonged high rates keep the real supported and sustain carry inflows, while fiscal and inflation worries weigh on the currency, shaping Brazil's export pricing for feed commodities.
After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.