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The dollar closed up 0.67% at R$5.4885 after the central bank kept the Selic at 13.75%. Investors also watched fiscal signals from the Lula government, and US jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969.
Fiscal worries and a firm dollar weigh on the real, which can make Brazilian exports cheaper in dollar terms and modestly pressure global soymeal and corn offers.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.