
Peru's first anchovy season in the northern-central region was closed in August after catching only 25% of its 1.91 million tonne quota, and the second season was cancelled on October 16. Peru's research institute reported biomass fell 27.9% and juveniles made up 79% of catches, as warm water disrupted the fishery.
Peru supplies about one-fifth of global fishmeal, so the cancelled seasons tighten fishmeal supply and support prices. Buyers are expected to shift toward soybean meal, which supports soybean meal demand and prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.