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JPMorgan estimated global crude supply exceeded demand by 1.4 million barrels a day last month, as Middle Eastern exports returned to prewar levels. HSBC expects Saudi output to rise in the fourth quarter, and Latin American output has grown sharply.
A shift to surplus, with crude down about 20% from this year's peak, weighs on oil prices. Lower energy costs reduce biofuel and transport costs, which pressures vegetable oil and related feed inputs.
semafor.comJeronimo GonzalezNov 5, 2026After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
