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Drought in Brazil worsened in September 2026, with municipalities in severe or extreme drought rising 75.8% to 276. Alagoas, Bahia and Sergipe are hit hardest, with many municipalities having over 80% of farmland affected.
Drought in the Northeast threatens rainfed corn and beans and raises irrigation costs. The regional area is small relative to national output, so the price impact is limited.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.