CONAB estimates Brazil's 2023/24 safrinha corn crop will fall 11.8% to 90.28 million tonnes, with productivity down 7.2%. Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo and Paraná saw sharp losses after prolonged drought during the grain-filling stage.
A roughly 12% drop in Brazil's main corn crop tightens export supplies and supports corn and corn-based feed prices. Brazil's safrinha is the majority of its corn, so the shortfall matters for global feed buyers.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.