
Rhine water levels are forecast to fall again in the coming days, with the Kaub barge clearance expected to drop to as little as 5 centimeters. Diesel barge rates from Rotterdam to Basel have risen again this month and are near a record since 2018.
Low water and rail maintenance have also disrupted inland deliveries of goods including coal and grain.
Shallow Rhine conditions raise freight costs and limit barge loads for grain and feed ingredients moving inland from Rotterdam, tightening regional supply and supporting higher delivered prices in Europe.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 113 past bullish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.8% to +4.2%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.