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Cattle futures fell another $2.50-$3.125 for feeder cattle and 15-85 cents for live cattle on Wednesday, with cash trade also lower as packers hold the upper hand. Negotiations over the California ports remain unresolved, and the export data showed beef exports to China down 78.2% while South Korea fell 1.4%, Japan was flat and Taiwan rose 20%.
A possible West Coast port disruption threatens beef exports and adds to the cattle supply glut already built up in feedlots, which pressures live and feeder cattle prices. Weaker cattle values reduce the economics of feeding and can lower demand for feed ingredients over time.
After 11 past bearish logistics events, Lean Hogs moved a median +1.6% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -2.7% to +2.5%), and -6.1% over 20.
After 20 past bearish logistics events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.0%), and +2.1% over 20.
After 29 past bearish logistics events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -2.0% to +0.5%), and -3.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
