New University of Missouri research, published by farmdoc daily, models what happens if restrictions on Mexican feeder cattle imports, imposed in 2025 over New World screwworm, stay well below historical levels through 2031. The model projects higher U.S. cattle and beef prices than otherwise expected, even though Mexico could process more cattle domestically and sell more beef.
Lower feeder cattle imports tighten U.S. supply and support live cattle and beef prices, with the offset that Mexican beef output could grow and compete for U.S. demand over the longer term.
After 227 past bullish report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.5%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.