
The Canadian dollar held near its highest level since September 16 against the US dollar, with USD/CAD trading around 1.39 after a second day of losses. The dollar weakened after Democrats won the US midterm elections, while crude oil fell to a two-month low on hopes of an end to the US-Iran conflict.
Traders were awaiting monthly US and Canadian jobs reports due Friday.
Lower oil prices weaken the loonie, a commodity-linked currency, which can affect Canadian and US feed ingredient import costs. Markets still price over 80% odds of another Fed hike in December, which limits further dollar weakness.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.