
The Japan-Korea Marker LNG benchmark reached $31.76/MMBtu on 3 November, a year-to-date gain above 230%. The rise follows the loss of Qatari and UAE loadings, and QatarEnergy's force majeure runs to at least the end of December 2026.
US and African supply has covered up to two-thirds of the shortfall.
Asian gas prices are capped by coal switching, but 2027 tightness keeps upward pressure on gas-based energy and fertiliser costs. New US LNG capacity could later create a glut that weighs on prices.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.