Rabobank says Australia's 2026-27 grain and oilseed output could beat earlier expectations, at 63 million tonnes. That would be 8% below last year's strong harvest, which set records for barley and canola.
Australian SPI futures for January 2027 and 2028 have fallen, though by less than CBOT contracts.
A larger-than-expected Australian crop adds to global supply and weighs on wheat and barley prices. Rabobank sees improving global grain supply as a downward pressure on prices.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.