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NOAA gives the developing El Niño a greater than 90% chance of becoming very strong during the 2026/27 northern autumn and winter, with a 69% chance of exceeding any event recorded since 1950 between October and December. Southern Africa faces heightened drought and extreme heat risk, while parts of East Africa could see above-normal rainfall and flooding.
A very strong El Niño raises the risk of drought in Southern Africa and disrupted rainfall elsewhere, which can cut regional maize and other crop output and increase import demand for feed grains.
agrimonitor.com.naNov 4, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
