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Asian LNG prices have more than tripled this year, with the Japan-Korea Marker topping $31/MMBtu and briefly exceeding $33, compared with about $9 in January. The Iran war has removed an estimated 60 billion cubic metres of LNG supply, and the IEA forecasts a record 3% decline in global gas production this year.
QatarEnergy has extended its force majeure on LNG exports, and the tightness is expected to persist into 2027.
Lost Qatari LNG keeps Asian and European buyers competing for limited cargoes, which supports natural gas prices. Gas is also a key input for nitrogen fertiliser, so higher gas costs feed into urea and feed-cost pressure.
oilprice.comIrina SlavNov 4, 2026After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
