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December WTI crude closed down $7.97 (8.29%) on Wednesday, falling to a four-week low, and December RBOB gasoline dropped 7.05% to a 7.75-month low. The decline followed President Trump downplaying fresh strikes on Iran and Democrats winning control of Congress, which investors read as raising the odds of a quicker end to the US-Iran war.
Record US crude output and a smaller-than-expected EIA inventory draw also weighed.
Expectations of a faster end to the Iran conflict reduce the risk premium on crude and diesel, which feeds through to the cost of feed transport, grain drying and fertiliser inputs. Lower energy costs ease pressure on feed-ingredient prices, though a renewed escalation could reverse the move quickly.
barchart.comRich AsplundNov 4, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
