USDA projections show soybean oil use for biofuel production reaching 17.8 billion pounds in the 2026/27 marketing year, more than half of domestic soybean oil consumption. The EPA has announced record-high Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027, supporting feedstock demand.
Rising biofuel demand for soybean oil tightens the supply of oil relative to meal, supporting crush margins and farm soybean prices. The article forecasts record soybean oil prices in 2026/27.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.