
The US Department of Commerce set the subsidy rate for Moroccan phosphate fertilizer exports, including those from OCP, at 20.04% in a review of countervailing duties first imposed in April 2021. The determination is not final: the US International Trade Commission must still decide whether US producers would be harmed if the duties were removed, with that decision expected by April 2027.
Keeping countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphates limits lower-priced imports into the US market, which supports US DAP prices and reduces supply for buyers there. The final ITC decision will determine whether that support continues.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.