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Commerzbank expects the Central Bank of Brazil to pause its rate-cutting cycle at 13.75% because of fiscal and inflation concerns after Lula's re-election. Analysts now expect only one further 25 basis point cut by year-end, down from three previously.
Commerzbank still expects the real to appreciate over the medium term and sees room for lower rates next year.
A pause in Selic cuts keeps Brazilian financing costs elevated for feed producers, while expected real appreciation would lower the local cost of imported grains and meal over the medium term.
fxstreet.comFXStreet Insights TeamNov 4, 2026After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
