
Domestic crude prices in India rose on November 4, 2026 after a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island and stalled negotiations. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve stocks fell to 282.2 million barrels, the lowest since 1982, and Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105.
Low SPR stocks and a higher bank forecast point to a firmer crude outlook, which raises diesel and energy costs for feed producers. The price path depends on whether the Iran talks progress.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.