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A Newcastle disease outbreak was confirmed on 18 October 2026 at a commercial turkey farm in Santa Catarina, Brazil, its first in more than two years. Mexico, Brazil's seventh-largest chicken market, imposed a nationwide import ban on 19 October, and Saudi Arabia restricted imports from Santa Catarina only.
Losing Mexico and other buyers shifts Brazilian chicken supply toward other markets and could pressure Brazilian chicken export prices, while roughly 14% of Brazil's poultry exports face potential restrictions. Lower export demand may also weigh on domestic poultry prices and reduce demand for feed ingredients such as corn and soybean meal.
foodagribusiness.worldVladislav VorotnikovNov 4, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
