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Brazil confirmed its first HPAI outbreak on a commercial poultry farm in Rio Grande do Sul on May 15, 2025, triggering export bans from China, the EU and others. Brazil's May chicken exports fell 17.6% month on month in volume and 19% in value.
Brazil is the largest chicken exporter, so the loss of export markets creates a domestic chicken surplus that pressures poultry prices and weakens demand for other proteins, while lower chicken prices reduce feed demand.
tridge.comVictor LangatJun 10, 2025Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
