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Forecasts from Ampere Meteorologia show rain spreading over the South and part of Central Brazil this week, but unevenly. Soil moisture in Matopiba is below 20% with no improvement expected, while parts of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso do Sul remain below 60% storage, and some southern areas face excess water.
Dry soil in Matopiba keeps soybean planting risky in the north, while excess rain in the South could slow machinery work and planting. Mixed conditions add weather uncertainty to Brazil's soybean and corn supply outlook, a modest supportive factor for soy and meal prices.
agrolink.com.brLeonardo GottemsNov 4, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 55 past neutral weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
