The Brazilian real weakened after doubts grew over President Lula da Silva's willingness to pursue fiscal adjustment. The dollar closed at R$5.4872, up 0.79%, its highest close since December 30, 2025, and posted its third straight gain.
The market also awaits the central bank's Copom decision, where a hold at 13.75% is expected.
A weaker real makes Brazilian soybeans, corn and meal cheaper in dollar terms, which can add export competitiveness and pressure global prices. Higher domestic borrowing costs also weigh on the feed and livestock sectors that rely on local credit.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.