
OPEC+ core members decided at a Sunday online meeting to keep December oil production targets unchanged, as expected by the market. Further policy changes were deferred to next year, and a full 21-country group meeting is scheduled for November 29 to set 2027 quotas.
Most Gulf members are producing well below target because the Iran war has disrupted exports, so unchanged targets do little to add supply. Analysts warn of a possible 2027 surplus if Gulf flows recover, which would weigh on crude prices.
After 175 past neutral policy events, BRENT moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 187 past neutral policy events, WTI moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.