France's 10-year OAT yield rose back to 4.95% as oil rebounded after reports of a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island. Fitch revised France's outlook to negative, and hawkish ECB comments kept a December rate hike on the table ahead of US midterms.
Higher euro-zone yields and rate-hike expectations can strengthen the dollar and weigh on euro-denominated import demand, while the oil rebound adds to feed cost and freight pressure.
After 533 past bearish macro events, EURUSD moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, BRENT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.