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Energy Intelligence says the Mideast war has entered its ninth month and global LNG markets are increasingly stressed. Its risk scenarios put the probability of a full conflict return at 40% over the next three to six months.
A renewed conflict would cut Middle East LNG and fertiliser flows again, lifting gas and energy costs that feed into nitrogen fertiliser and grain production expenses.
energyintel.comJaime Concha, CopenhagenNov 3, 2026After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, NATGAS moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
