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BloombergNEF forecasts a broadly mild Northern Hemisphere winter driven by a record-strength El Niño, with milder temperatures and wetter weather in the US south and a mild outlook for Europe. A late-October weakening of Arctic stratospheric winds raises the risk of sudden cold outbreaks.
Milder winter weather would cut heating demand and natural gas storage draws, easing gas and power price pressure. Cold snaps remain an upside risk to that outlook.
about.bnef.comNov 3, 2026After 104 past bearish weather events, NATGAS moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
