As of November 2, Ukraine had harvested 44.6 million tonnes of grain and leguminous crops from 75% of the planned area, with an average yield of 5.12 t/ha, above last year's 4.48 t/ha. Sunflower (89%) and soybeans (93%) harvests are nearly complete, while corn has been threshed on only 37.5% of its area.
A slow corn harvest and solid yields point to adequate Ukrainian supply of corn and oilseeds in the coming months, which is modestly bearish for export offers. Sunflower and soybean output near completion gives clarity on oilseed meal supply.
After 770 past neutral report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 563 past neutral report events, SOY moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.