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The dollar rose about 0.9% to R$5.49 against the real after the Brazilian holiday, with traders watching the new government's economic team and the Copom decision. Concern centered on a reported meeting between Lula and economist André Lara Rezende over a proposed gradual Selic cut.
Uncertainty over Brazil's economic policy is weakening the real, raising import costs for feed ingredients.
After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.