
The spot dollar rose sharply in early trading as investors reacted to a report that President Lula would meet economist André Lara Rezende, who proposes cutting the Selic to 7.5% over 12 months. The real was the worst performer among the liquid currencies tracked.
Fiscal and monetary policy uncertainty is driving a weaker real, which raises Brazilian import costs for feed ingredients and adds to risk premia on local assets.
After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.