Solidarity lanes move at most 50% of exports as Black Sea blockade chokes grain trade

After 283 past bullish logistics events, WHEAT moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2026Russian grain exports shift to Baltic as Black Sea trade disrupted | Reuters+2.4%
• Jun 13, 2025Nibulon to Export 1 Million Tons of Grain Via Black Sea Port of Chornomorsk+1.4%
• Oct 22, 2026Russian grain exports collapse fourfold as Black Sea ports stall-0.7%
• Sep 12, 2026Russia Turns to Far East to Export Grain Amid Black Sea Strikes - Bloomberg-1.2%
• Nov 21, 2024Solidarity Lanes: Latest figures – October 2024 - Mobility and Transport-0.2%

After 285 past bullish logistics events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Oct 22, 2026Russian grain exports collapse fourfold as Black Sea ports stall-1.2%
• Nov 21, 2024Solidarity Lanes: Latest figures – October 2024 - Mobility and Transport-3.5%
• Jun 26, 2023Ukraine traders seek other export options as grain corridor hopes fade - Fastmarkets-8.7%
• Apr 10, 2022Grains shipments from Black Sea ports slowly gain traction: sources - Supply Chain Council of European Union | Scceu.org+2.0%
• Jun 27, 2023Ukraine must be ready to export mostly via Danube ports, sea ports authority says-7.9%

After 206 past bullish logistics events, SOY moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.6%), and +1.4% over 20.

• Oct 31, 2022Despite Russia's Black Sea Decision, Grain Still Shipping Out of Ukrainian Ports Monday+4.6%
• Mar 19, 2020Grains, Livestock, Energy Get Up Off Mats in Thursday Trade+6.8%
• Sep 16, 2021China buys Brazilian soy as hurricane damage limits US exports: traders - Markets - Business Recorder-0.9%
• Feb 9, 2026Lower Ocean Freight Costs Boost Grain Export Competitiveness -+1.6%
• Feb 8, 2018Argentine truck strike pressures more ports, lowers grain cargos+3.5%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.