The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged, as expected, but its message was clearly restrictive. Two members voted for a rate hike, and markets are beginning to consider a next move that could be a hike rather than a cut.
Major technology companies also reported strong quarterly results, with cloud and AI revenue growing sharply.
Expectations of tighter US policy support the dollar, which raises the local-currency cost of dollar-priced grain and oilseed imports for buyers abroad. Stronger AI-related spending does not directly move feed markets, so the Fed path is the main channel here.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, DXY moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.