Danske Bank notes US midterm elections are held today with tentative results due Wednesday and final outcomes possibly taking weeks. It also flags unchanged Q4 Treasury borrowing plans, higher Q1 funding needs, and potentially tighter dollar liquidity into April.
Tighter dollar liquidity and firm US manufacturing data could support the dollar, which tends to pressure dollar-priced commodities. The election outcome adds uncertainty but is unlikely to alter the rate path.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.