
The Crop Estimates Committee's first planting-intention survey shows South African maize area falling 12.37% to 2.387 million hectares, the lowest in eight years, with white maize down more than 18%. Sunflower plantings are intended to rise almost 45% on better prices, lower input costs and a shorter season.
A smaller maize crop tightens South African feed grain supply and could push up corn import demand, while the shift to sunflower adds future sunflower meal supply. El Niño drought risk and high fertiliser and fuel costs reinforce the tighter maize outlook.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.