Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday after reports that the United States struck Iran's Qeshm Island, reviving fears of escalation in the eight-month conflict. Brent rose about 0.5% to $105.3 and WTI rose to $97.05 after falling more than 7% the previous day on hopes of Qatari-mediated talks.
Renewed strikes add a geopolitical risk premium to crude, which feeds through to diesel and energy costs for feed mills and farm inputs. The modest gain suggests markets had already priced much of the risk, so prices remain volatile around peace headlines.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.