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WTI fell 6.45% to $97.40 and January Brent dropped 6.37% to $106.20 on Monday, after Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within two days in exchange for a diplomatic deal. Iranian negotiators held talks with Qatari mediators in Doha.
OPEC+ held December targets for a third month, and US commercial crude stocks fell 1.9 million barrels to 410.6 million.
The fall was driven by diplomacy rather than supply, but a credible Hormuz reopening would ease tanker risk and lower energy and fertilizer costs. US inventories sitting 4% below the five-year average limit the downside.
tradingnews.comItai SmidtNov 2, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
