
The Brazilian stock exchange fell 18.12% in one week, its worst drop since March 2020, while the dollar closed at R$5.446, the highest of 2026. The selloff followed Lula's re-election, which undercut bets on a Flávio Bolsonaro victory and revived doubts about fiscal adjustment.
A sharp real depreciation raises the cost of imported feed ingredients and fuel for Brazilian buyers, while election-driven fiscal doubts keep currency volatility elevated.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.