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December Nymex natural gas closed down 1.45% on Monday as forecasts showed above-normal temperatures across most of the US through November 16. Storage levels are rising, and a weekly EIA injection came in above expectations.
Lower heating demand and rising storage weigh on natural gas prices, which lowers the cost of gas-fired power and nitrogen fertilizer inputs. The effect on feed grain markets is minimal.
After 104 past bearish weather events, NATGAS moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.