◂ Event Timeline

Nov 2, 2026POLICYGlobal

OPEC Keeps December Output Targets Unchanged

Seven OPEC+ countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will keep December oil targets unchanged. Physical markets are showing weakness as Strait of Hormuz flows recover toward prewar levels.

WHY IT MATTERS

Weaker physical prices alongside unchanged quotas suggest the supply premium may be fading, which could cap crude-linked costs for feed buyers despite the policy pause.

AFFECTSBRENT◆WTI◆

SOURCE
rigzone.comSalma El Wardany, Grant Smith, Nayla RazzoukNov 2, 2026

Price reaction & history

BRENT◆neutralSO FAR1d -2.3%5d —20d —

After 175 past neutral policy events, BRENT moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.

Oct 1, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady+2.6%
Oct 4, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady-0.9%
Dec 4, 2022Algeria says OPEC+ decision to keep output unchanged appropriate-11.4%
Aug 30, 2021OPEC+ likely to keep oil output policy from September unchanged, sources say | Reuters+0.5%
Feb 1, 2024Opec+ committee meeting keeps oil output policy unchanged - The Business Times-2.6%

WTI◆neutralSO FAR1d -1.4%5d —20d —

After 187 past neutral policy events, WTI moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

Oct 1, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady-2.3%
Oct 4, 2026OPEC+ agrees to keep November oil output targets steady+0.8%
Dec 4, 2022Algeria says OPEC+ decision to keep output unchanged appropriate-11.1%
Aug 30, 2021OPEC+ likely to keep oil output policy from September unchanged, sources say | Reuters+0.8%
Feb 1, 2024Opec+ committee meeting keeps oil output policy unchanged - The Business Times-2.6%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

BRENT · GP ▸

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WTI · GP ▸

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