
Cemaden data show municipalities in extreme drought in Brazil rose from 4 in August to 68 in October 2026, with severe drought up from 153 to 232. The worsening is concentrated in the North and Northeast, with risks to corn, bean planting and Matopiba soybeans.
Drought in the Matopiba region could delay planting and stress soybeans and corn, adding supply risk to Brazilian output and supporting prices modestly.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.